The mood surrounding Manchester City is far from celebratory these days. Once the pride of English football, the club is now in the midst of a significant crisis. The past week has seen them eliminated from the prestigious Champions League by Real Madrid and suffer a damaging 2-0 defeat at home against Liverpool—who are dominating the Premier League standings. These developments not only represent symbolic defeats but also serve as harbingers of potential calamity for Pep Guardiola’s squad. With the backdrop of a looming hearing addressing 115 charges of financial misconduct, expected to reach a verdict soon, the specter of uncertainty is casting a long shadow over their previously illustrious season.
This uncharacteristic drop in performance for Manchester City merits serious contemplation. It marks a disturbing trend: in their last 27 matches across all competitions, they have suffered 14 losses, including a staggering eight defeats in their last 17 Premier League clashes. This decline starkly contrasts with the dominance they exhibited under Guardiola since his arrival in 2016, during which they achieved unprecedented success, including four consecutive league titles. However, the team’s current form has left them in a precarious position as they vie for a Champions League spot for the coming season.
Manchester City’s impending midweek matchup against Tottenham Hotspur lacks significance in the title race, as they now find themselves 20 points adrift of Liverpool at the top. However, the match isn’t devoid of importance altogether; it symbolizes a potential salvaging of a disappointing season. With England’s dominance in the UEFA coefficient rankings suggesting that Premier League places for Champions League qualification may increase from four to five, City cannot afford to be complacent. They currently sit fourth in the league; however, their cushion over the sixth-placed AFC Bournemouth is perilously slim, just one point. Moreover, Brighton & Hove Albion, positioned ninth, loom closely behind, indicating that City’s Champions League aspirations are hanging by a thread.
Over the last ten league matches, City’s form has been dismal, placing them sixth in the Premier League rankings. When extended to 15 matches, they drop to ninth, trailing behind teams like Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Newcastle United. Given the alarming inconsistencies in their performance, it’s evident that Guardiola faces a steep uphill battle in achieving Champions League football for another year.
Complicating the situation further is the barrage of injuries plaguing Manchester City. Key players like Rodri—the reigning Ballon d’Or recipient—face potential season-ending issues, while fellow defenders John Stones and Manuel Akanji are set to be out for an extended period. To add to the malaise, Erling Haaland is grappling with a concerning knee injury. The once-fierce lineup is rapidly losing its competitive edge, with stalwarts such as Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gündogan, and Bernardo Silva struggling to make the impact expected of them.
But could this current season spiral further into chaos, potentially costing Manchester City a spot in the Champions League? The reality is unsettling: the club finds itself entangled in a highly competitive race, alongside five other clubs, for just two remaining slots. Past performances provide scant reassurance, and City appears increasingly vulnerable.
Despite these challenges, there exists a sliver of hope for City. The teams directly behind them have shown their share of struggles. Newcastle, for instance, has endured three losses in their last six league outings, and Bournemouth’s commendable run was interrupted by a surprising defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers. Chelsea’s fortunes have worsened dramatically, while Aston Villa secured a narrow victory to halt a five-game winless streak. Brighton, albeit the best-performing club in this chasing pack, already encountered significant setbacks, indicating that inconsistency reigns supreme among their rivals.
At this juncture, City retains control over their destiny; occupying a Champions League position places them at an advantage. The equation is straightforward for Guardiola: in order to avoiding falling into turmoil, they must simply outpace the competitors beneath them. Critical upcoming fixtures against Tottenham, Brighton, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth could define their season and secure at least a shot at European football in the coming year.
As it stands, the extraordinary trajectory that City has enjoyed in recent years feels like a distant memory. The pressure will intensify with each match as they seek to reverse their fortunes. The expectations that once seemed routine have now been replaced by uncertainty, and there are no guarantees remaining on the horizon—not even a place in next season’s Champions League.